Fed Chair Warsh Cuts Guidance in Half — Economist Says That Uncertainty Is Raising Mortgage Rates

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first meeting minutes averaged 113.5 words — 55% shorter than outgoing Chair Jerome Powell's final eight statements, and all 24 recurring Powell-era forward guidance phrases were dropped entirely. Economist Orphe Divounguy says the missing guidance is fueling market uncertainty, pushing Treasury yields — and therefore mortgage rates — higher even as bond volatility has declined outside of major data releases. Fed minutes show three voting members pushed to raise interest rates, with some non-voters also arguing for higher rates rather than cuts. Divounguy pushes back on President Trump's recent comments urging rate cuts, warning that cutting now while inflation stays above target could backfire and drive long-term yields even higher. He points to declining labor force participation, tied partly to falling net migration, as a factor keeping labor markets tight despite frozen job growth.