Democrats' Chances of Taking the Senate Have Continued to Increase, According to Polling

Mike Noble of Noble Predictive Insights breaks down the latest Voter Voice poll results. Democrats now lead the poll’s generic ballot by 5 points, up from 1 in March. Noble estimates Democrats have about an 80% chance of winning the House and calls Senate control a coin toss. In early 2028 polling, JD Vance leads the Republican field at 44% and Kamala Harris leads Democrats at 29%.