Did Higher-For-Longer Interest Rates, Heat Wave Cool Hiring?

Despite solid wage growth in May, consumers showed some restraint, and inflation continued to moderate. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCEPI) remained flat month-over-month, down from 0.3% in April. Core PCEPI eased to 0.1% from 0.3% the previous month. Year-over-year, core PCE stands at 2.6%, down from a persistent 2.8% over the past three months. In March, the FOMC dot plot projected core inflation, as measured by PCE, to reach just 2.6% for 2024 alongside a 4% unemployment rate. The unemployment rate has already hit 4%, aligning with the forecast, while core PCE is at 2.6% year-over-year.