‘Reasonable’ Fiscal Projections Versus ‘Plausible’ Ones

As Pennsylvania lawmakers kick off annual budget hearings on Tuesday, the Independent Fiscal Office fielded questions about revenue projections, the minimum wage and what could cause problems for the general fund. In his budget presentation to the Senate Appropriations Committee, IFO Director Matthew Knittel noted that his office was less rosy that the governor's administration on the state’s tax-and-spending balance. IFO projections expect a $4.2 billion budget deficit in 2024-25 with current policy, rising to a $6.7 billion deficit in 2028-29. The gap between IFO projections and Gov. Josh Shapiro’s estimate is about $1 billion in the current fiscal year, but $4.5 billion by 2028-29.